Commercial Mortgage Loans

Distress is currently low in the commercial real estate market. After Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank failed, there was widespread concern that other regional and local banks would fail due to the high levels of commercial real estate loans held in their portfolios. With the exception of some market sectors, most commercial mortgage portfolios have performed well. Usually, during times of market uncertainty, commercial real estate distress levels increase dramatically. Current levels of distress are low by historical standards. At the end of 2022, the level of commercial real estate assets under distress was only 1.2% of the total national sales volume. This number is important to watch as many loans face maturity and higher rates upon refinance in 2023.

MSCI, Inc. estimates the volume of loans maturing in 2023 at $400 billion. The Mortgage Bankers Association pegs the amount at over $700 billion. Many analysts predict that loan defaults will increase for two reasons: many of these maturing loans will need to be refinanced at higher rates (and may suffer cash flow problems) and there are fewer active lenders in the market due to the recent bank failures. Loan underwriting has tightened up as the result of global financial conditions and the average loan to value has been dropping on new originations. Many properties have been able keep pace with the market due to escalating rents and strong appreciation. Other properties, mainly in the office and retail sectors, have suffered due to higher vacancy factors and fixed long-term rental rates. Operating income growth has been strong in the multifamily and industrial markets, which represent about 35% of the maturities in 2023. Revenue growth in the office market has been flat for the past five years and vacancy rates have risen. This sector, which accounts for about 26% of 2023 maturities, is expected to see a significant increase in distress and defaults as many properties will not underwrite well enough to pay off existing loan balances.

In February 2023, Trepp Inc., a data analytics company, reported an increase of commercial mortgage-backed securities loans (CMBS loans) going into special servicing. They estimate the percentage of these loans at 5.2%. Many of these properties, including office buildings and retail centers, may be subject to distressed sales. In addition, many borrowers with adjustable-rate loans also face distress unless they hedged their risk with interest rate caps. These adjustable-rate borrowers are seeing current rates generate debt payments which exceed the net operating income of the property and an inability to raise rental rates to keep pace with the increases in debt service. Many of these borrowers will need to either sell the property in a distress sale or invest more capital into the property and refinance for lower loan amounts.

National, regional, and local banks hold more than half of the total amount of commercial real estate loans which will mature in 2023. So far, we have not seen distress levels high enough that would threaten the financial stability of these institutions. Most lenders are likely to extend impending maturity deadlines as opposed to foreclosing as foreclosure would cause losses. Many will employ other methods, including extensions and workouts, for the foreseeable future.

Most analysts agree that the problems encountered by Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are not applicable to other small and local banks with commercial real estate portfolios. These two large bank failures were caused by much more specific situations. Silicon Valley Bank was too concentrated in the venture capital and technology sectors and did not diversify their lending. Signature Bank was too narrowly concentrated in the cryptocurrency sector, a market sector under intense scrutiny of federal regulators.

The commercial real estate market is very varied. There are many different sectors, geographic areas, and borrower types. Banks that lend to this market are able to diversify their risk by lending to a wide variety of borrowers and limiting their exposure to any one particular area or property type. Lenders who employ diversified lending practices and have conservative underwriting guidelines are likely to experience little or no distress or financial losses during this current market cycle.

We don’t expect the multifamily sector to be affected by these recent closures unless the banking crisis expands and causes other banks to be closed down. These banks were affected by business lending in the tech and cryptocurrency sectors. Multifamily lending for banks has overall been healthy and we don’t expect that to change any time soon. However, we are seeing lending activity slow down as rates have risen due to the Fed’s policy of raising rates to combat inflation. Rate increases have caused many multifamily properties to experience cash flow problems.

Inflation fears, high interest rates, and the prospect of recession have slowed the pace of the commercial real estate market considerably. Some property types are outperforming others. Apartment buildings in desirable neighborhoods are performing well, as owners have been able to raise rents and keep up with rising interest rates. Multifamily properties in smaller and less desirable areas, or areas where unemployment is rising, are not performing as well, as rent increases are harder to implement. In the office sector, only medical office buildings are generating lender interest. General office properties have underperformed the market as a result of the work from home policies established during the Covid-19 pandemic. Office demand is unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels making the office sector extremely hard to navigate right now. In the retail sector, essential service businesses, such as grocery stores and pharmacies, are performing well, while traditional brick and mortar retailers are still feeling the effects of Covid-19 and the competition from online retailers. Many malls are experiencing record high vacancy levels, and some are being repositioned for other purposes. In the industrial sector, we are seeing strong demand for warehouse and distribution space to accommodate the online retailers. Industrial space in urban markets and close to transportation are performing very well. We expect to see sales prices for underperforming properties to drop in 2023 as investors gravitate to better positioned properties.

On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was placed into receivership by the FDIC. A few days later, New York based Signature Bank was closed. While these banks were involved in lending to the tech and cryptocurrency sectors, other banks are on the watch list. The Federal Reserve’s policy of raising short term interest rates to combat inflation has put many banks under pressure as banks traditionally hold a lot of short term treasury debt, which has gone down in value as rates have risen. Banks are forced to sell this debt at a loss when depositors withdraw funds from the bank.

In order to combat rapidly rising inflation, in 2022 the Federal Reserve aggressively raised short term interest in multiple 75 basis point increments. At the beginning of 2022, the yield on the 30 day treasury was 0.05%. As we near the end of 2022, the yield is 3.94%. The Federal Reserve has indicated that they will continue to raise short term interest rates in 2023 although at a slower pace and in smaller increments. Commercial mortgage rates are typically priced over the 10 year treasury notes. The longer notes are more market driven and less subject to Federal Reserve action. The 10 year treasury at the end of 2022 is in the range of 3.50% - 3.60%, and commercial mortgage rates are in the mid to high 5% range. The fact that long term rates are lower than short term rates indicates that economists expect the economy to slip into a recession. We will watch these trends closely during 2023.